Analysis Of Current Situation Of Bearing Industry And Prospect Of Economic Situation In 2020
Ⅰ.Analysis of the status of the bearing industry
Bearings are an indispensable basic component in modern machinery and equipment. Asia has a 40% market share, Oceania has a 31% market share, Europe has a 25% market share, North America has a 3% market share and Latin America has a 1% market share, the following is an analysis of the current status of the bearing industry.
More than 70% of the world's bearing market is shared by eight major multinational bearing group companies, including Sweden's SKF , Germany's Schaeffler Group's INA and FAG, Japan's NSK , NTN , Koyo Seiko, Minebea, Nachi, the United States Timken, etc. The analysis of the bearing industry pointed out that the high-end market of the world's bearing industry is monopolized by the above-mentioned enterprises, while the low-end market is mainly concentrated in China.
According to statistics from the analysis of the bearing industry, the main business income of China's bearing industry from January to December 2019 was 222.549 billion yuan. In 2018, the main business income was 274.1 billion yuan, an increase of 222.5 billion yuan from the 51.6 billion yuan in 2009. The compound growth rate was 18 %. The growth rate of the bearing is expected to slow down in the future, but because the bearing is a necessary component in various machinery, the growth rate will not be lower than the GDP growth rate.
From the perspective of output growth, the average growth rate of China's output in 2019 is 12.22%, and a large economic scale has been formed. At the same time, independent innovation system and research and development capacity building have made certain progress, and formed 97 national standards and 103 machinery industries. The standard and 78 bearing standard committee documents are composed of a bearing standard system that is in line with international standards. The adoption rate of international standards has reached 80% 7. Part specialization and process specialization production have made great progress, greatly supporting the national economy. .
Judging from the import situation, China's bearing export growth has been relatively stable, and the growth rate is higher than imports. The import and export trade surplus is increasing. In 2019, the trade surplus reached 1.550 billion US dollars. And compare the import and export bearing unit price. The price difference between China's import and export bearings is large, but the price difference has been decreasing year by year, reflecting that although the technical content of China's bearing industry still has a certain gap with the advanced level, it is still catching up.
At present, although the development of China's bearing industry has achieved certain results, the existing problems cannot be ignored. The most prominent problem is the overcapacity of low-end products, while high-end products are still dependent on imports. The development of China's machinery and equipment industry is seriously out of touch.
Ⅱ.Outlook for the economic situation in 2020
Due to the impact of the epidemic, the bearing industry will have an unprecedented trough in the first quarter. If the epidemic in the second quarter can be controlled and restored, most companies expect to resume full production and operation in the second quarter. In the second half of the year, due to the stability of China's economic fundamentals, the restorative production, construction and investment after the epidemic will bring about release market demand and potential market momentum, and bring opportunities for structural adjustment and long-term transformation of the bearing industry.
Therefore, the development of the bearing industry in 2020 will show a more obvious development trend from low to high and gradual recovery. But at the same time, it should be noted that the current epidemic has not only had a major impact on the domestic economy, but has also had a major impact on the international community. The world economy is expected to experience a major decline. Therefore, in 2020, crisis and opportunity coexist With the joint efforts of various enterprises in the industry, it is expected that various economic indicators of the bearing industry can maintain the level of last year.
(Data Sources：China Report Hall）